Date of publication: March 25, 2022 • 4 hours ago • 6 minutes reading • 108 comments Vladimir Putin at a concert in Moscow to celebrate the 8th anniversary of the annexation of Crimea by Russia on March 18, 2022. (Photo by Mikhail KLIMENTYEV / SPUTNIK / AFP
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What does the future hold for Vladimir Putin as the ultimate authoritarian superpower?
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If this war ends in the short term, with Putin’s own internal sovereignty intact, perhaps a new border with Ukraine, and silent weapons, will he continue to enjoy his only psychodramatic commitment to the imagination of Western players? Former United States President George W. Bush once claimed that he had a sense of Putin’s soul. Former Governor Adrienne Clarkson imagined his English was perfect, even when he used an interpreter. Former United States President Donald Trump apparently admires him as a macho model. Russian President Vladimir Putin (L) and former US President Donald Trump talk as they attend the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit on November 11, 2017. MIKHAIL KLIMENTYEV / AFP via Getty Images) Would all this change an arrest warrant for war crimes? There was a time when Putin was really the former president of Russia and he was doing just fine. That was between 2008 and 2012. He was treated with the greatest respect on the world stage, because, of course, he was the caretaker Prime Minister instead, and it was widely understood that he retained all power in the country. Putin’s grip on the Western geopolitical mind was such that, for example, in 2014, even when his country simultaneously hosted the Olympics and invaded Crimea, he was still seen as a powerful and rational villain who had to be feared. to respect him, because he chose only battles. could win.
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The “war criminal” seemed overestimated at the time, and it is partly hard to imagine that Putin would end up like Slobodan Milosevic, the former Yugoslav president who dies in The Hague, or former Liberian President Charles Taylor. imprisoned in a British prison, or Radovan Karadzic, the former Bosnian Serb leader convicted of the Srebrenica genocide after living a double life on the run as a popular mystic and botanist of the new era, Dr. Dragan David Dabic. This improbability is in part Putin’s own achievement in projecting an image of capability as the West has been busy seeing him as evil. Evil has been a major element of his image in world affairs, as seen from the West, said Paul Robinson, a professor of international affairs at the University of Ottawa and an expert on Russian military history.
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That is likely to remain intact, he said. In the vision of capability, this war could change things for Putin’s reputation on the world stage. “This will clearly be seen in the West as a huge blunder, although of course it depends on how it ends,” Robinson said. Russian President Vladimir Putin, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping arrive to be photographed during their meeting in Beijing on February 4, 2022. Photo: ALEXEI DRUZHININ / Sputnik / AFP Roughly, no one expected to get stuck in an Afghanistan or Iraq, where even victory is a failure. Robinson said Putin had always given the impression that he was reasonable in using force for limited purposes, thus avoiding some of the large-scale quagmire in which US military operations have fallen. In that sense, it is possible Ukraine was “surprisingly open to the public” and said that this was not the case. It should come as no surprise. Although he denies that it is a war, Putin has not denied that this invasion is motivated by historical grievances and emotional connection, even spiritual unity. From his speech in Munich in 2007 to his stance against NATO, to his essay last year on the historical ties between Russia and Ukraine that he claims justify his invasion, it was clear that he had a deep historical sense of complaint.
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Robinson said all this complaint could be a pretext and it could be true. “They are not necessarily incompatible,” he said. One possible explanation is that there is a more rational calculation for Putin’s actions, based on the belief that conflict is inevitable because the Ukrainian government is inherently hostile to Russia and exploits the West. Peace is impossible in Donbas, and sooner or later it will explode and NATO could get involved, so Russia can also anticipate the game and try to complete it. “It was a mistake to think you could do it at all,” Robinson said. The image of a tyrant in complete control has also been tarnished by rumors of a rift closer to Putin’s government. Russian opposition politician Alexei Navalny attends a rally in Moscow on February 29, 2020. Photo by Shamil Zhumatov / Reuters / File Lisa McIntosh Sundstrom, a professor of political science at the University of British Columbia, says Putin is unlikely to step down from the popular opposition even if he is in a tightly controlled media environment. war”. Exposes journalists to more than a decade in prison. Alexei Navalny, a Russian lawyer and leader of a rebel movement recently poisoned by Russian spies, has been sentenced to just nine years in prison.
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Elite alienation would be necessary but not sufficient, he argues, as Putin’s circle appears to have narrowed during the pandemic. The most likely source of any internal overthrow is a combination of security services, the military and the oligarchs, who will personally pay the highest absolute price for sanctions. “A select ‘palace’ coup is possible, especially if many of these groups join forces to forcibly remove Putin or persuade him to step down,” wrote Makidos Sundstrμm. On March 16, the International Court of Justice in The Hague gave its initial response to Ukraine’s allegations of genocide by Russia. By a vote of 13 to 2, the court ruled that Russia “will immediately suspend military operations launched on February 24, 2022 in the territory of Ukraine.”
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He also said that Russia “will ensure that any military or irregular armed units that may be directed or supported by it, as well as any organizations and individuals that may be under its control or command, do not take steps to promote military operations.” . referred to in point (1) above. “ Russia did not obey. Unfortunately for the court, it did not even take part in the oral proceedings on Ukraine’s request for this “indication of interim measures”. Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, said Russia had committed war crimes, including bombing a maternity hospital and a theater with a clear Russian word for “children” in letters visible from the sky. “Putin’s forces used the same tactics in Grozny, Chechnya and Aleppo, Syria, where they stepped up city bombings to break the will of the people,” Blinken said.
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“We are committed to accountability using all available tools, including criminal prosecution.” This did not lead Putin to the Hague seat. Instead, his military support for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad now comes in the wake of Assad’s ratification of Putin’s claim of “de-escalation” of Ukraine and his praise of the war as a “correction of history.” Ending wars has to do with rescuing the person Professor Paul Robinson With war crimes, Robinson said it is difficult to prove crime because the fact that civilians are being killed is not sufficient evidence of war crimes. Civilians have been killed in US- or NATO-led wars, prompting allegations that, for example, Tony Blair and George W. Bush are war criminals, and even fictitious speculation that they would – or should – be arrested on arrival in a foreign country.
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Russian President Vladimir Putin attends a meeting with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in the Kremlin in Moscow, Russia, September 13, 2021. Will Putin ever leave Russia? Will it ever travel beyond its narrowest sphere of global influence again? The pursuit of peace and international order often requires democratic leaders to meet with murderous tyrants. But will any country arrest him with war crimes warrants? Would a country risk repeating Britain’s experience of arresting Chilean dictator Augusto Pinochet for genocide and then releasing him because he was ill and old? “The end of wars has to do with the salvation of the person,” said Robinson, who is also the author of the academic book Military Honor and the Conduct of War. Putin has been placed in a …
