As the President of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelenskiy, is well aware, the West’s love for his country is already conditional. Military aid is limited by NATO fears of provoking Vladimir Putin. French President Emmanuel Macron is pushing “too eagerly” for a deal negotiated at risk, British officials say, to put Kiev’s interests ahead. Accused of ignoring domestic problems by far-right rival Marine Le Pen, Macron’s lead in the polls narrowed ahead of the election in two rounds this month. German Chancellor Olaf Solz is currently focused on the security of domestic energy supply and not on the future security of Europe. He knows that Putin’s threat to cut off gas, if implemented, would trigger a national emergency. Soltz’s ruling coalition is squeaking after a dispute with the Greens, who say he and his former boss, Angela Merkel, were “blind” to the dangers of energy dependence on Russia. This argument will intensify as the war continues – and not just in Germany. “Europe must stop spending up to 800 million euros a day on the Russian gas market,” according to a new publication by the Center for European Reform. “In 2021 Ρω Russia exported more than 49% of its oil and 74% of its gas to Europe.” The voluntary cessation of all these markets, he said, could be the most effective sanction Europe could impose. “The political will to take such a radical step is still lacking.” And, unfortunately, it is likely to remain so. Joe Biden’s summit on NATO and the EU last weekend did not produce such a much-needed long-term plan for defeating Russia or better weapons for Ukraine’s defenders. But it did raise questions about his leadership. Biden’s crisis management has brought a modest boost to opinion polls. A new poll shows that 61% of Americans believe that higher gasoline prices, up 20% in a month, are worth it to beat Russia. Most support additional US military missions. This spirit of solidarity is finite. Biden looks tired and vulnerable, with a low overall acceptance score But this spirit of solidarity is finite. Biden looks tired and vulnerable, with a low overall acceptance score of 41%. Only 39% approve of its handling of the economy. This is the most important battlefield in the US, as a neo-Trump Republican Party looks to take over Congress in November. That is why the White House has used its strategic oil reserves. Will Biden remain stumbling along the way or will he look for a quick way out? In the US and the EU, the early dynamics against Putin seem to have stopped and may even be reversed. Ukrainian Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba urged Brussels last week to swiftly introduce a fifth package of sanctions. However, Foreign Minister Josep Borrell said the EU would “maintain” rather than “increase” pressure on Moscow – the overly cautious approach preferred by Paris and Berlin, which angers Poland and the Baltic republics. Russia is actively exploiting these divisions. “The irresponsible sanctions in Brussels are already having a negative effect on the daily lives of ordinary Europeans,” said a foreign ministry official. Western leaders were threatening to make their people worse, the official added, amid new Russian threats to block food and agricultural exports. Meanwhile, China and India are helping Putin by buying discounted Russian oil. The pressures associated with Ukraine on Western leaders are undoubtedly escalating in general. The IMF warned last month that the war would cause “catastrophic” damage to the world economy as well as a deep recession in Russia and Ukraine. A forecast released last month predicted a. 90 billion blow to the UK alone as consumers and businesses struggled to recover from the pandemic. In Spain, the far-right populist Vox party has used rising prices to fuel anti-government protests. Similar politicized demonstrations have been observed in France, Italy and Greece. Concerns about a wider war, meanwhile, may help Viktor Orban, Putin’s pro-Putin Hungarian prime minister, win re-election this weekend. Maybe Western politicians will keep their word and keep their commitments to Ukraine. Or maybe not. Zelensky, for one, has his doubts. Speaking to the Economist, he expressed doubts about the credibility and credibility of some leaders, including Boris Johnson. “Britain wants Ukraine to win and Russia to lose. It is not carrying out a balancing act,” Zelensky said. However, he added that he was not sure if Johnson was secretly hoping that the war would continue, thus weakening Putin (and strengthening Johnson). Zelensky said Germany’s “pragmatist” Solz had mistakenly found himself “on the fence” and urged Orban to take sides. His harshest words were reserved for the Macron government. “They are afraid,” he said rawly. If the war continues until the autumn, as many predict, the financial pain, especially for energy costs resulting from political pressure, “fatigue sanctions”, increased public apathy and the frightening financial cost of unlimited military aid, humanitarian aid and millions of refugees could come together to critically undermine government support for Ukraine’s struggle. A failure of the West on this scale would be a disaster for the people of Ukraine, for the security and common well-being of Europe. But it is possible to see how it can happen. Putin, of course, is watching, waiting for fatal cracks to appear. However, he also faces deep-seated internal tensions and challenges, as Western intelligence chiefs noted last week. They suggest he is at odds with his generals, is out of touch and may lose control. Maybe that’s how the war will end. Not with an explosion or a miserable deal, but with a slow collapse. Who will endure more: Putin the deluded, paranoid war criminal or the motley crew of unreliable Western politicians who oppose him?
